From wars to violent protests, worsening climate conditions, and economic disruptions, nations are grappling with numerous challenges that have contributed to a “predominantly negative outlook for the world over the next two years…” That’s according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024.
While there’s nothing new about these risks, and I believe we’ve certainly come through some of the worst in recent times, the prognosis of the Global Risks Report doesn’t get better. According to the report, the predicted negative outlook is expected to persist, and even worsen, over the next decade.
Here’s a quick summary of the key risks highlighted in the Global Risks Report 2024 and how they are likely to play out over the next decade.
Overview of the WEF’s Global Risks Report 2024
The Global Risks Report is a yearly report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) that identifies and analyzes the most pressing global risks facing the world. These risks encompass a wide range of economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological challenges.
The report is underpinned by the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) — a global survey of experts from various sectors including business, government, academia, civil society and the international community. The 2024 report includes a survey of 1,490 experts, as well as contributions from 11,000 business leaders in 113 economies, who contributed their views to 34 global risks identified in the report.
The results of the survey highlight the negative outlook contained in the report. From the survey, 54% of respondents believe that, over the next two years, the world will experience “some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes.” 30% of respondents were of the opinion that there would be even more turbulent conditions within the next two years.
Further, roughly two-thirds of respondents indicated that they expected a stormy or turbulent outlook for the global economy over the next ten years. The following is a summary of some of the key risks highlighted in the report.
Key risks for the next two years
According to the 2024 report, the risks that are top of mind for the next two years, ranked in order of severity, are as follows:
- AI-generated misinformation and disinformation
- Extreme weather events
- Societal and/or political polarization
- Cyber insecurity
- Interstate armed conflict
- Lack of economic opportunity
- Inflation
- Involuntary migration
- Economic downturn
- Pollution
Apart from these, respondents also ranked risks that they were most likely to present “a material crisis on a global scale in 2024.” Extreme weather was the number one risk, while the top five also included cost of living crisis as well as cyberattacks.
Top risks emerging over the next decade
The top ten key risks that are expected to shape the next ten years, according to respondents are:
- Extreme weather events
- Critical change to Earth systems
- Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
- Natural resource shortages
- Misinformation and disinformation
- Adverse outcomes of AI technologies
- Involuntary migration
- Cyber insecurity
- Societal polarization
- Pollution
Preparing for a future of turbulent global risk
Clearly, the key global risks identified in the WEF’s report pose potential challenges to individuals and nations globally, especially where they are not properly mitigated. It may also be hard to effectively counter these risks, because “cooperation will come under pressure in this fragmented, in-flux world”, as the WEF notes.
However, there are things we can do to mitigate the impact of these risks and forge a path towards a better future. The WEF identifies four broad categories of actions that can help:
- Localized strategies, such as public awareness and education, effective use of national and local regulations, and the alleviation of disaster effects through financial instruments.
- Breakthrough endeavors, which include advances secured through focused research and development in areas like infectious diseases, climate change, policy etc.
- Collective actions, not just amongst countries, but as a sum of the “aggregate and independent effort of single citizens, companies, and countries.”
- Cross-border collaboration, including mutual restraint from using dangerous capabilities, addressing weak links in global and regional systems etc.
Ultimately, as the WEF concludes, “the next decade will usher in a period of significant change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the limit.” But I believe that with a clear understanding of the key risks ahead and a commitment to face them now, it’s possible to create a better future for all.
