There are a growing number of articles and reports, which leaves especially small and medium size business owners rather perplexed.

One of the major human resources specialists, Manpower, conducted a recent survey, which I find very interesting and representative in this regards.

According to the survey; while nine out of ten working people consider keeping their job to be the most important thing at the moment, due to an unprecedented and COVID induced economic crisis everyone fears for their jobs. Nevertheless, returning to the office is still a source of restraint for 94% of those surveyed. Interestedly, work/life balance seems to have become an even more important criterion for employees since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic than it was even before it began.

By far not all the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis have been learned. And those that have been learned have not necessarily been applied. Nevertheless, one of them – drawn and applied – will certainly have been of great help in the current crisis.

BIS, aka central bank of central banks, says that the banks have served as a “reliable first line of defense” and that “backed by swift action by the authorities, banks helped to limit economic stress at the beginning of the pandemic”.

I must stress the fact that the starting point of 2008 crisis is very different than the actual one. Back then, the crisis came from a freewheeling financial sector, overwhelmed by bets on sub-prime mortgages, which have proved to be much more dangerous than expected. Poorly capitalised, many banks that had considered risk management as a trivial activity found themselves on the brink of collapse, with some having to seek state support. In the actual case, the crisis did not initiate from the financial sector and it affects entire global economy.

Geneva is not only a global trade finance hub; it is also home to United Nations and many of its agencies. One of the most prominent ones among these agencies is United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Having established in 1964 as a permanent intergovernmental body, UNCTAD is the main authority of the General Assembly in the sphere of trade and development. Its purpose is promotion of trade and development, particularly in developing countries.

UNCTAD released a report in end-November, where it concluded that COVID-19’s economic fallout will long outlive the health crisis. Announcing the report, UNCTAD Secretary -General Mukhisa Kituyi warned also of an increase in extreme poverty.

FINMA independent supervisor of the Swiss financial market, has published its annual Risk Monitor. This report specifies the most important risks that supervised institutions are currently encountering and portrays the focus of FINMA’s supervisory activity.

In mid-2020, Swiss banks held claims on foreign companies totalling USD 78.1 billion (CHF 72 billion), according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements.

According to Swiss National Bank statistics 75% of these loans are held by two biggest banks, Credit Suisse and UBS. Coupled with bankruptcies and international fraud in the first half of the year that Swiss banks faced in commodity trade finance segment, I believe it is safe to say that FINMA will be monitoring the activities of the banks ever more closely.

International Energy Agency (IEA) published its World Energy Outlook (WEO)2020 report on 13 October. The new report provides the latest IEA analysis of the pandemic’s impact: global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%.

The established methodology of the report is to put forward different scenarios, within which the probable developments in the energy sector are discussed. I think, these discussions are very useful especially during these turbulent times.

I would like to briefly summarize these scenarios from the outlook below:

• The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), in which Covid-19 is gradually brought under control in 2021 and the global economy returns to pre-crisis levels the same year.  As I see it, this one is the least realistic scenario.
• The Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS) is designed with the same policy assumptions as in the STEPS, but a prolonged pandemic causes lasting damage to economic prospects. The global economy returns to its pre-crisis size only in 2023, and the pandemic ushers in a decade with the lowest rate of energy demand growth since the 1930s.
• In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), a surge in clean energy policies and investment puts the energy system on track to achieve sustainable energy objectives in full, including the Paris Agreement, energy access and air quality goals. The assumptions on public health and the economy are the same as in the STEPS. I think, this is a very optimistic scenario.
• The new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case (NZE2050) extends the SDS analysis. A rising number of countries and companies are targeting net-zero emissions, typically by mid-century. All of these are achieved in the SDS, putting global emissions on track for net zero by 2070.

Following almost a decade of negotiations, 15 countries in Asia and the Pacific signed a historically important trade agreement on November 15th, forming the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP.

This China – led agreement aims to create a free trade area between China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the ten ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, which include Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam. Its members account for 30% of the world’s GDP. In addition, it will affect more than 2 billion people.

The agreement provides for reductions in import taxes, harmonisation of customs procedures and also includes clauses on respect for intellectual property. It excludes, however, everything relating to the protection of workers and the environment.

According to my reading of several experts on the subject, the deal could add almost USD 200 bn annually to the global economy by 2030.